W7_PieroAnticona_Rebaseline

1)    Step 1- Problem or Opportunity Statement
      The student was not able to follow the planned schedule because he had other commitments and he was not able to accomplish tasks as requested. His mentor required to submit a recovery plan and asked for rebaselining

2)    Step 2 – Feasible Alternatives

For this case, we have two options for rebaselining:

-      -       Rebaseline Option 1: Leave the ACWP and BCWP to date UNCHANGED and only adjust the BCWS Early and BCWS Late Date Curves to reflect the changes. (+/-)

Rebaseline Option 1

-       Rebaseline Option 2: Zero Based Budgeting Method- In this method, we “close out” all the work completed to date and effectively create a new project baseline consisting of the work already done and the work remaining, and use the only known fact- ACWP to date as the starting point for the new project.

Rebaseline Option 2

3)    Step 3- Develop the outcomes for each alternative

For each alternative the outcomes to analyze are:
1.    Rebaseline Option 1
o   Forecast Cost is more realistic than the original baseline

2.    Rebaseline Option 2
o   Forecast Cost is more realistic than the original baseline

4)    Step 4- Selection of the acceptable criteria.
  The following attributes will be considered for the selection criteria:
      Forecast Cost less than 10% of Estimate to Complete (ETC) from original budget

5)    Step 5- Compare the outcomes from each alternative analysis done in Step 3 against the minimum acceptable criteria from Step 4.

     Approved Budget: USD 322,350.00
 Based on the weekly report submitted on Oct 13th,  We can also see that CV is positive and SV is negative. This means that there was an overestimated budget for the activities listed.

Weekly Report Oct 13th

Based on original budget, the remaining budget to complete the activities is:

322,350 (BAC) - 33,910 (EV) = USD 288,440 (ETC)
      Note that actual cost is USD 17,200, less than EV cost. 

When calculating the new forecast based also on the availability of the resource, we estimate the following:

     Actual Cost: USD 17,200

     Cost to Complete remaining activities: USD 57,100

In this case, we have assessed that hours estimated for activities do not exceed hours available from the resource as shown in the following graph. 

Resource Chart

For the two options, we can determine that:

Option 1:  Variation is higher than 10% (57,100 - 288,440 = -231,340) 


Option 2: If we start from zero, then we take the estimated amount as the new ETC, therefore variation is 0. and it is less than 10% as expected. 


6)    Step 6- Selection of the “best”.

As described in Step 5, the best option in this particular case is Option 2. 
Also, in option 1, the adjustment of the Early and Late Curve, will not be like most of rebaselines in projects were the changes produce a jump and increase the ETC and therefore the EAC of the project. In this particular case, it will jump down. 

7)    Step 7- How to plan on tracking/reporting on recommended choice. 

If rebaseline is requested, It is required that scope must be understood clearly and also follow recommendations of four characteristics of a reliable schedule as recommended by GAO in Schedule Assessment Guide. Best Practice 10. Table 2.

1 - Reflecting 

   - Well constructed

   - Credible

   - Controlled

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8)    REFERENCES.

Guild of Project Controls Compendium and Reference (CaR). (2015, November 01). M09-5_project_performance_forecasting_-_rev_1.05.pdf. Figure 27

GAO (United States Governance Accountability Office), 2015, GAO-16-89G Schedule Assessment Guide. Page 153.

Spreadsheet Weekly Report. Piero_W05_Rev 0.PDG.xlsx

Spreasheet GPC-AACE-PMI Certification Prep Course oct26.xlsx